A noteworthy legislative amendment was the exclusion of “squatters” from the definition of “tenant” under the current tenancy laws.
It is important to note that while the new Good Cause Eviction Law went into effect in New York City immediately, other municipalities throughout New York State will need to opt-in by enacting this legislation if they so choose.
At the end of the second quarter of 2023, member firms of the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors (HGAR) were reporting that buying demand remained high, however, buyer confidence had been shaken by the banking crisis, high interest rates, inflation and a predicted economic downturn or recession. The results of the second quarter clearly show that these headwinds remain a concern for many homebuyers and home sellers here and across the nation.
The second quarter 2023 regional data showed lower sales and stabilizing prices in reaction to high interest rates that during June at times exceeded 7%. Inventory levels plummeted in the region, giving home buyers less purchase options.
Residential sales, which include single-family homes, condominiums, co-operatives and 2-4-family multi-family homes, decreased across the board in the second quarter of this year compared to the second quarter of 2022, with both Westchester and Sullivan counties seeing the largest sales volume declines at 26.8% and 26.9%, respectively. Rockland County had a decrease in residential sales of 19%, Putnam County saw a decrease of 19.5%, Orange County posted a decrease of 19.7% and Bronx County’s home sales were 20.3% lower. One bright spot in the second quarter of this year was the niche co-operative market in Rockland County, which saw a 60% jump in the number of transactions compared to the second quarter of last year.
In Westchester County, the single-family home median sale price was down by 4.4% to $846,500, while the second quarter 2023 median sale price of a multi-family house in Westchester jumped 5.2% to $746,850. The condominium, median sale price increased by 5.6% to $475,000 as compared to 12 months earlier. The co-op median sale price in Westchester County decreased by 8.6% to $185,000 in the second quarter of this year.
In Rockland, Putnam, Sullivan and Orange counties, median sale prices increased for all property classes, with standouts being a 22.2% increase in the multi-family median sale price in Rockland County to $665,750, and a 34.7% increase in Orange County’s multi-family median sale price to $409,000. Bronx County saw a decrease in median sale price across all property classes, with the largest decrease being 22.8% in the co-op market to $192,500.
Single-family home prices seem to be stabilizing. Putnam County posted a 2.6% increase in the second quarter of this year to $492,500; Rockland County saw a 1.1% increase in the single-family home median price to $652,000. Orange County’s single-family median was flat with just a 0.2% increase in the second quarter of 2023 to $415,655. Bronx County’s single-family median declined 2.9% to $602,000, while Sullivan County posted the largest increase at 7.7%, which pushed the median price to $280,000.
Total inventory levels (all property types) in the second quarter of 2023 were down sharply in all HGAR markets as compared to the same period a year ago led by Putnam County’s 65.2% decline; followed by Westchester (-31.4%); Orange County (-29.6%); Bronx County (-26.9%); Rockland County (-26.7%); and Sullivan County (-13.3%).
The Average Days on Market for single-family homes in the HGAR market area increased by double digits with the exception of Sullivan County, which saw a 3.5% decline to 70 days. Putnam County’s Average DOM shot up 54.5% to 70 days, followed by Rockland County’s single-family market which registered a 47.6% hike in Average DOM to 43 days in the second quarter. Orange County single-family homes stood on the market for an average of 61 days in the second quarter, a 27.7% hike from 12 months earlier. Bronx County posted a 21.6% jump in Average DOM to 80 days, while Westchester County listed single-family homes were on the market for sale for 42 days, a 21.3% increase from the second quarter of 2022.
While the regional economy continues to show strong job growth and low unemployment, national trends provide a mixed-bag looking forward. While a recent jobs report indicated the national economy is beginning to slow down, the Federal Reserve Board, which paused interest rate hikes in June, appears likely to hike rates once again at its meetings later this month.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that for the week ended June 30, 2023, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 6.85% from 6.75% the prior week, while the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $726,200) increased to 6.95% from 6.91% the prior week.
MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said in reaction to the jobs report, “The incoming economic data has been filled with conflicting signals. Manufacturing activity remains quite weak, while consumer spending has held up somewhat better, and new home construction and sales have picked up. Our forecast is for a slowdown in economic activity in the second half of 2023, with a recovery in early 2024. The June employment report reinforces that forecast.” He added that while job and wage growth are trending lower, “both are still well above the pace that would be consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target. We now expect that the FOMC will raise the federal funds target another 25 basis points at its July meeting.”
National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, “The weaker job market combined with decelerating wage growth and calming consumer price inflation are clear indications for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates. The American dream of homeownership has been a challenge for younger adults. High mortgage rates, along with the lack of housing inventory, have been the main hindrance. More effort should be directed toward raising the housing supply by focusing on worker training in home building and lessening barriers to construction so that once interest rates decline, there will not be a resurgence of rapid home price growth.”
HGAR OneKey MLS 2023 2nd Quarter Market Report
Data provided by OneKey® MLS, one of the largest REALTOR® subscriber-based MLS’s in the country, dedicated to servicing more than 46,000 real estate professionals that serve Manhattan, Westchester, Putnam, Rockland, Orange, Sullivan, Nassau, Suffolk, Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx. OneKey® MLS was formed in 2018, following the merger of the Hudson Gateway Multiple Listing Service and the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. For more information on OneKey® MLS visit onekeymlsny.com.
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