Fitch Ratings: U.S. Housing Economy Cools Further with Higher Costs, Weaker Demand; Mortgage Rates to Dip to 5.8% in 2026

Fitch expects annual home price growth to be flat in 2026, slowing from 1.5% in 2025 and 4% in 2024.

Fitch Ratings: U.S. Housing Economy Cools Further with Higher Costs, Weaker Demand; Mortgage Rates to Dip to 5.8% in 2026

NEW YORK—Fitch Ratings expects the U.S. residential housing economy to slow to 1.1% in 2025 from 2.0% in 2024 as intensifying cost pressures from higher tariffs, tighter construction labor supply, and weaker consumer and homebuilder sentiment weigh on consumption growth and residential investment.

Supply broadly remains tight, but demand indicators are weakening. New home inventory has declined slightly, while existing home inventory continues to improve, helped by declining mortgage rates that should spur turnover and demand. Fitch expects 30-year mortgage rates to end 2025 at 6.25% and decline further to 5.8% in 2026, driven by Fed policy rate cuts and a narrower spread between 10-year Treasury yields and 10-year Treasury bonds, the Fitch Ratings report stated.

Fitch expects annual home price growth to be flat in 2026, slowing from 1.5% in 2025 and 4% in 2024 amid low affordability and regional supply gluts. Price trends vary widely. Higher inventories in the South are weighing on prices, while low supply is fueling above-average growth in the Northeast.

Fitch also expects homebuilder revenue to slightly contract in 2025 with lower average selling prices. Higher costs and incentives will drive a 250–300bps EBITDA margin decline, reverting toward pre-pandemic levels.

The latest homebuilder sentiment readings are at the lowest levels since year-end 2023. Fitch forecasts single-family starts to fall 5.5% this year, compared with 6.8% growth in 2024. Multifamily starts will grow 13%, up from a 25.1% decline last year.

Residential mortgage and home equity line of credit (HELOC) delinquency rates now exceed pre-pandemic levels. Fitch expects the performance of its rated RMBS portfolio to weaken further as rising inflation and lower real household income challenge borrowers. Stretched affordability and higher debt-to-income ratios will lift the serious delinquency rate to 1.7% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025.

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Real Estate In-Depth

Real Estate In-Depth is the official publication of the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors.

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