Higher Rates Cause Mortgage Volume to Drop Nearly 6%

Higher Rates Cause Mortgage Volume to Drop Nearly 6%
Joel Kan, Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist for the MBA

WASHINGTON—Mortgage applications decreased 5.7% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ended Feb. 24, 2023, released by the MBA on March 1.

On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6% from the previous week and was 74% lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3% compared with the previous week and was 44% lower than the same week one year ago.

“The 30-year fixed rate increased to 6.71% last week, the highest rate since November 2022, which drove a 6% drop in applications. After a brief revival in application activity in January when mortgage rates dropped to 6.2%, there have now been three straight weeks of declines in applications as mortgage rates have jumped 50 basis points over the past month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Data on inflation, employment, and economic activity have signaled that inflation may not be cooling as quickly as anticipated, which continues to put upward pressure on rates.”

Added Kan, “Both purchase and refinance applications declined last week, with purchase index at a 28-year low for a second consecutive week. Purchase applications were 44% lower than a year ago, as homebuyers again retreat to the sidelines as higher rates crimp affordability. Refinance applications account for less than a third of all applications and remained more than 70% behind last year’s pace, as a majority of homeowners are already locked into lower rates.”

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 31.8% of total applications from 32.5% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 8.1% of total applications.

The FHA share of total applications remained unchanged at 12.1% from the week prior. The VA share of total applications decreased to 11.6% from 12.0% the week prior. The USDA share of total applications decreased to 0.5% from 0.6% the week prior.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 6.71% from 6.62%, with points increasing to 0.77 from0.75 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $726,200) remained at 6.44%, with points decreasing to 0.49 from 0.53 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate remained the same from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 6.45% from 6.39%, with points increasing to 1.19 from 1.16 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 6.13% from 5.98%, with points remaining at 0.93 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 5.73% from 5.66%, with points decreasing to 0.86 from 0.97 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

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