“The cost of living is just too damn high — especially when it comes to the sky-high rents and mortgages New Yorkers pay every month,” Gov. Hochul said.
Phase Two is to include 450 units of permanently affordable rental housing adjacent to the armory
The ceremony was presided over by Westchester County Clerk Timothy Idoni, and Jenkins’ oath was administered by New York State Supreme Court Justice Anne E. Minihan, 9th Judicial District, in a ceremony at the Michaelian Office Building in White Plains.
Yun noted that a key trend going forward is that for-sale inventory has been increasing of late and is expected to continue next year.
WASHINGTON—The National Association of Realtors held its annual Real Estate Forecast Summit yesterday and the consensus from industry economists that participated in the virtual program was conditions in the residential real estate markets will improve in some key areas in 2025.
National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun began the session by noting that the “worst is over” after the markets experienced difficult sales activity in 2023 and 2024.
He predicted that existing home sales will rise between 7% to 12% in 2025 and 10% to 15% in 2026. New home sales volume will rise 11% in 2025 and another 8% in 2026.
Sales price growth will slow down in the next two years with the median sale price increasing nationally by 2% each year. Yun noted that a key trend going forward is that for-sale inventory has been increasing of late and is expected to continue next year.
While the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates this month and in 2025, its impact will not be significant, the economists agreed. The nation’s estimated average rate (for the week ended Dec. 6) for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.67% from 6.69% the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. NAR’s Yun predicts that the average mortgage interest rate will be just above 6% in 2025 and will be at roughly the same level in 2026.
All agreed that there will be only marginal improvement in the current housing affordability crisis in 2025 as inventory levels continue to rise from record-low levels.
Yun predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates once again at its meetings next week and in total will implement another four to six rate cuts in 2025.
Jessica Lutz, NAR Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research, covered 2024 sales data and noted that 26% of primary residence sales involved all-cash transactions, which was an all-time high. In addition, the for-sale-by-owner or FSBO share of the market was just 6% overall in 2024.
“We know that high-income and high-equity homebuyers are really the winner in today’s housing market,” Lutz said. Realtor.com data also indicates that while first-time homebuyer income has increased over the past two years, the high cost of housing and low inventory are shutting out first responders, teachers, etc.
Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale agreed with Yun that sales will rise. She predicts a 1.5% increase in home sales in 2025 and that sales prices will rise, but at a slower pace than prior years. She noted that Fed rate cuts will not have a dramatic impact on long-term rates. She predicts that mortgage rates will fall to just above 6% and will average 6.3% in 2025. One positive for the market will be an increase in for-sale inventory, driven in part by new home construction.
“Despite the positives with inventory expected to rise, it is still going to be a challenging market for first-time homebuyers in part because availability will be stretched,” Hale said. Another impediment to increased first-time homebuyer activity will be that average rents are expected to be flat in 2025 and therefore “the short-term cost is very much in favor of renting. You have to think very long term for the financial benefits of homeownership to pay off given the cost structure today.” Hale said Realtor.com believes the homeownership rate will fall once again in 2025.
In terms of lending rate predictions, Robert Dietz, senior vice president and chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, expects rates to be “somewhat below 6%” by the start of 2026. Michael Fratantoni, Ph.D, Chief Economist, Senior Vice President, Research and Business Development for the Mortgage Bankers Association, said he believes rates will average a little below 6.5% in 2025. Fratantoni agreed with Yun and expects the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week, but believes the Fed will only cut rates three more times in 2025. He expects the U.S. economy to slow and the unemployment rate to rise in 2025.
Some great news for the mortgage industry, Fratantoni predicts mortgage origination volume will increase 20% in 2025. Home sale prices will rise 1.5% in 2025, while average rents will be flat as compared to this year. Fratantoni expects existing home sales to rise 5%, while new home sales will jump 10% in 2025.
Editor’s Note: Check back with Real Estate In-Depth for further coverage on predictions and perspectives on the national and local real estate markets in 2025.
Phase Two is to include 450 units of permanently affordable rental housing adjacent to the armory
The ceremony was presided over by Westchester County Clerk Timothy Idoni, and Jenkins’ oath was administered by New York State Supreme Court Justice Anne E. Minihan, 9th Judicial District, in a ceremony at the Michaelian Office Building in White Plains.
Chris brings a wealth of experience and proven leadership to this new advisory position. She is an 18-year veteran of Anywhere Real Estate Inc.
A federal judge on Jan. 3 denied New Jersey’s attempt to stop or stall the launch of the congestion tolling plan two days later.
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