New Study Once Again Dispels Myth that New Housing Development Fuels Increase in Student Enrollment

One of the report’s major findings is that new multifamily housing development has not resulted in spikes in student enrollment in impacted school districts.

New Study Once Again Dispels Myth that New Housing Development Fuels Increase in Student Enrollment
From left, John Barrett, Co-Managing Director of RM Friedland; Anthony R. Davidson of Fordham University Real Estate Institute; BCW President & CEO Marsha Gordon; RM Friedland President Sarah Jones-Maturo; David Cortez, CEO of Foretold Predictive Analytics, and Joshua Harris of the Fordham University Real Estate Institute. PHOTO COURTESY OF THE BUSINESS COUNCIL OF WESTCHESTER

WHITE PLAINS—A newly released report on the new multifamily housing development boom and its impacts on communities in Westchester County refutes the long-standing premise that new housing development will result in large increases in student enrollment, resulting in higher school tax burdens for local taxpayers.

The report, authored by commercial real estate brokerage firm RM Friedland, was released at the Business Council of Westchester’s and the Fordham Real Estate Institute’s annual real estate development conference on Jan. 14 held at 360 Hamilton Ave. in White Plains. The report chronicles the significant residential housing development activity since 2021 where approximately 27,500 units of new housing have been completed and delivered (12,500) or are currently under construction (15,000) in the county.

Most of the new projects have been concentrated in New Rochelle, Yonkers, White Plains, and Mount Vernon. However, more suburban areas like Armonk, Sleepy Hollow and Port Chester have also seen a surge in new development. Occupancy rates across major projects have remained high, the report states.

RM Friedland officials presented the findings of its report entitled: “A Frontline Report of New Development in Westchester County, New York: Surprising Impacts and Opportunities” at the Fordham/BCW event. John Barrett, co-managing director at RM Friedland, explained that the report did not include proposed housing units that are in the pipeline that are currently in the municipal approval process.

“As a company, we are tracking another 10,000 units that are not under construction yet, but they are appearing before boards, or the ideas have been floated with local municipalities. This is unprecedented for Westchester County,” Barrett related.

One of the report’s major findings is that new multifamily housing development has not resulted in spikes in student enrollment in impacted school districts. The report stated: “Concerns about overcrowded schools and strained infrastructure, often raised in opposition to large housing developments, have proven to be largely unfounded in Westchester County. Evidence from New Rochelle and Yonkers reveals a decrease in student populations despite substantial residential growth.”

In fact, the report noted that enrollment data across Westchester County reveals that, among 40 school districts, only four—Ardsley, Dobbs Ferry, Elmsford, and Yorktown Heights—experienced an increase in student populations between 2018 and 2023. “Notably, these districts are located in municipalities that have not seen significant residential development during this period, highlighting a stark contrast with the larger cities undergoing extensive growth. It is also noteworthy that these four school districts saw negligible increases ranging from seven to 24 students (0.7% - 1.45% increase),” the RM Friedland report stated.

The report on new residential development’s impact on student enrollment in Westchester mirrors the findings of a report released by the Welcome Westchester advocacy group back in late March of 2022. That report found there wasn’t any data from recent large multifamily developments in suburban Westchester communities to substantiate fears of a surge in student enrollment expressed by local opponents of those development projects.

Key findings from the Welcome Home Westchester report included that recent housing developments did not have a major impact on school enrollment; in none of the multifamily residential projects with at least 100 units examined did children associated with the project and enrolled in the local school district equal or exceed 1% of the school’s total enrollment. Also, in all cases, the projects generated a net positive financial benefit to the school taxes, even after taking into account the costs of educating enrolled school children living in the multifamily housing.

The RM Friedland report also detailed the extensive economic impacts the new housing developments have brought to communities throughout Westchester and other benefits, including an increase in retail leasing in and around these projects.

“The economic impact of this development boom extends beyond housing. Westchester’s retail sector has expanded significantly, with positive absorption rates reflecting strong demand for both mixed-use retail spaces and standalone stores. The presence of demand from experiential tenants, specialty markets, and household-name retailers underscores the county’s growing appeal as both a residential and commercial hub,” the report stated.

RM Friedland President Sarah Jones-Maturo said that Westchester County is responding to the national housing shortage head-on. “We believe Westchester serves as a microcosm for the nation, demonstrating how strategic planning, innovative policies and balanced development can create thriving communities.”

Responding to the report’s school enrollment findings, David Cortez, CEO of Foretold Predictive Analytics and one of the event’s keynote speakers, said, “The impact of these developments on the schools is minimal at this point. I often hear from other people in the community, particularly homeowners, saying our schools are going to become overcrowded. That’s not the case at all.”

Author
John Jordan

Editor, Real Estate In-Depth

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