Realtor.com Analysis: Nearly $13 Trillion in U.S. Homes Face Severe Climate Risks

The New York metro region ranked No. 2 in terms of total value of homes with severe or extreme flood risk at $295.3 billion. Miami came in first place with $306.8 billion facing severe or extreme flood risk.

Realtor.com Analysis: Nearly $13 Trillion in U.S. Homes Face Severe Climate Risks
"Climate risks are no longer a distant threat for U.S. housing—they are a present reality that put a large chunk of U.S. real estate value at risk," said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com.

AUSTIN, TX—More than one in four homes in the U.S.—representing $12.7 trillion in real estate value—are exposed to severe or extreme climate risks, according to a Realtor.com report released today (Sept. 3). The report states that flood, hurricane wind, and wildfire threats are reshaping housing markets, homeowner costs and insurance availability nationwide.

“Climate risks are no longer a distant threat for U.S. housing—they are a present reality that put a large chunk of U.S. real estate value at risk,” said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com. “In many markets, the gap between perceived risk and actual risk is sizable, particularly for flooding. This has significant consequences for homeowners, buyers, and insurers, and it underscores the need for readily available data to help households make informed decisions.”

Flood Risk: Underestimated and Growing

Flood risk is one of the most underestimated hazards in the housing market. Nearly 6.0 million homes, valued at $3.4 trillion, are likely to experience severe or extreme flooding over the next 30 years, according to First Street's Flood Factor score data found on Realtor.com. This figure is about two million higher than the number of homes located in FEMA's Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), largely because FEMA's maps do not fully reflect heavy rainfall or the effects of climate change.

Within the 100 largest metros, New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco are the top metros where Realtor.com sees the biggest gap in dollar terms, between homes in FEMA SFHAs and homes facing severe or extreme flood risk, by $95.3 billion (New York), $65.6 billion (Los Angeles) and $54.9 billion (San Francisco).

By gap in share of market value, New Orleans leads the nation with 66 percentage points of its housing stock at severe or extreme flood risk but not identified by FEMA SFHAs, followed by Palm Bay, FL at 15 percentage points and Chattanooga, TN at 11 percentage points.

Coastal markets dominate the list of metro areas with the greatest dollar value and share of dollar value exposed to severe or extreme flood risk.

The New York metro region (New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ) ranked No. 2 in terms of total value of homes (9.9% market share) with severe or extreme flood risk at $295.3 billion. Miami came in first place with $306.8 billion facing severe or extreme flood risk.

Hurricane Wind Risk: Entire Markets at Stake

In 2025, approximately 18.3% of homes in the United States, valued at nearly $8.0 trillion, face severe or extreme risk of wind damage, according to First Street's Wind Factor score data available on Realtor.com. In 14 major metros across Louisiana, Florida, South Carolina, and Texas—including Miami, Houston, Tampa, and New Orleans—every home is exposed to severe or extreme risk of wind damage. Because these risks frequently overlap with flood exposure, homeowners in coastal markets face compounded threats. Financially, the burden is amplified by high hurricane deductibles; in many states, homeowners with a $400,000 policy may need to cover as much as $20,000 in damage before insurance kicks in.

The New York metro region came in third with $545.6 billion in total home value (18.3% market share) facing severe or extreme wind risk. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL market once again came in first with $1.32 billion in home value (100% market share) facing severe or extreme wind risk, followed by the Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX market at $764.3 billion in home value facing wind damage risk.

Wildfire Risk: Concentrated but Intensifying

Wildfire exposure, while geographically concentrated, represents a significant and growing challenge. In 2025, 5.6% of homes, worth $3.2 trillion, face severe or extreme wildfire risk, according to First Street Fire Factor score data available on Realtor.com. California alone accounts for nearly 40% of this total, or $1.8 trillion in property value, with Los Angeles and Riverside among the most exposed metros. The state's insurance market is under severe stress: California's FAIR Plan, designed as a last-resort option, has grown to $650 billion in total exposure, up 289% since 2021.

Outside California, wildfire risk is also acute in western metros such as Colorado Springs, CO where more than three-quarters of home value is vulnerable, and Tucson, AZ where 60% of housing stock faces high fire danger.

Insurance Costs: Rising and Uneven

Rising insurance costs are amplifying the financial strain on homeowners in these high-risk areas. In Miami, for single-family homeowners under a HO-3 policy, the most common type of homeowners insurance policy in the U.S., the typical homeowner now pays annual premiums equal to 3.7% of the home's market value—the highest ratio among the nation's 100 largest metros.

New Orleans follows closely at 3.6 percent, with Cape Coral, FL, at 2.2%. Florida cities dominate the list of expensive insurance markets, with Tampa, Palm Bay, and North Port all ranking among the top ten. These burdens come on top of structural gaps in coverage: flood insurance is typically sold separately, hurricane deductibles are significantly higher than standard policies, and wildfire coverage in many regions is either limited or unaffordable

"Climate risk and insurance are not usually a top consideration for home shoppers balancing budgets against still-high home prices and mortgage rates, but these factors already shape ongoing housing costs and affordability, and increasingly whether they can secure affordable insurance coverage," said Hale. "While the types of risk vary by region—flooding in the Northeast, wildfires in the West, and hurricanes in the South—the financial consequences are increasingly national in scope."
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Real Estate In-Depth

Real Estate In-Depth is the official publication of the Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors.

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