Siena Poll: Inflation Down; Consumer Index Up in NY Over Three Points

LOUDONVILLE, NY—The New York State Index of Consumer Sentiment now stands at 74.1 up 3.6 points from the last measurement in the third quarter of 2023 according to the latest poll by the Siena College Research Institute (SCRI) released on Jan.10. New York’s overall Index of Consumer Sentiment is 4.4 points above the national index of 69.7, despite a 1.6-point national increase.

New York’s current index increased 4.9 points to 71.6 and the future index increased nearly three points resulting in New York’s measure of future expectations moving from 73.0 last quarter to 75.7. Overall confidence remains higher in New York than across the nation. Future confidence in New York is now nearly a point above the breakeven point of balanced optimism and pessimism and 8.3 points higher than national future confidence.

“As the rate of inflation has fallen this year, consumer sentiment has creeped begrudgingly higher. Nationally the index, up a point and a half this quarter, stands 10 points higher than at this time last year. In New York, the index is up 3.6 points this quarter and while only two points higher than a year ago, once again is knocking on the door of optimism overtaking pessimism,” said Don Levy, SCRI’s Director. “Still, despite the lessening percentage of New Yorkers saying that either food or gasoline prices seriously impact their finances, other monthly expenses including housing and utilities weigh heavily on between 59% to 70% and the new necessities, home internet, cable and streaming and cell phones seriously affect the budget of between 33% – 44%.”

In the fourth quarter of 2023, buying plans were up for cars/trucks at 22.9% (from 20.2%) and for furniture at 26.8% (from 24.5%). Buying plans were down slightly for homes at 6.4% (from 7.3%) and for major home improvements at 22.2% (from 23.0%) while consumer electronics is unchanged at 45.4%.

Fifty-five percent (down from 58% last quarter and the lowest since September 2021) of all New Yorkers say that current gasoline prices are having a very serious or somewhat serious impact on their financial condition. Seventy five percent (down from 78% last quarter and lowest since March 2022) of state residents indicate that the amount of money they spend on groceries is having either a very serious or somewhat serious impact on their finances.

Seven in ten (70%) New Yorkers say that housing costs are having a very serious or somewhat serious impact on their financial condition. Additionally, a majority (59%) of residents say that their utility costs are having at least a somewhat serious impact on their finances. Other monthly expenses including the cost of cell phones (33%) and entertainment services including Internet, cable and streaming services (44%) are having a very or somewhat serious impact on New Yorkers’ financial condition.

Sixteen percent of all New Yorkers are somewhat or very seriously impacted by all six0monthly expenses—food, gasoline, housing, utilities, home entertainment and cell phones. The consumer sentiment index among that group of New Yorkers is 66.5, nearly eight points below the statewide reading.

Forty-three percent of New Yorkers have a retirement account like a 401K that they make contributions to above and beyond any contributions made by their employer. Of those, 82% contributed to their retirement account this year. Close to a third, 29%, withdrew from their account this year. Most, 64%, contributed about the same to their retirement account this year as they did last year while 23% contributed more, according to the Siena Poll.